Vol. 7, Issue 1, Part C (2025)

Background: Unintentional death represents a major global public health issue, having a contribution to morbidity as well as to economic cost. There is a pattern of death by age, sex, and environmental circumstances, with a tendency towards escalating unexplained death. Demographic determinants, as well as trends in time, are crucial to planning proper public health interventions.
Objective: This research examines time trends, demographic contribution, and predicting factors of accidental death in the Al Najaf Governorate of Iraq (2021-2023), with an emphasis placed on unexplained death.
Method: A retrospective analysis of 4,711 cases was conducted using data from the Forensic Medicine Department, categorized into five main causes of death. Temporal trends were evaluated using one-way ANOVA, and future fatalities were predicted using an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. A Random Forest classifier assessed demographic contributions to mortality patterns.
Results: Significant annual variability was observed across all causes of death (p<0.001). Unexplained fatalities increased substantially from 292 in 2021 to 553 in 2023 (F = 315.45). Predictive modeling forecasts a steady rise in unexplained deaths to 750 by 2028. Gender significantly influenced classification, with male fatalities dominating across all causes (46.7% importance). Age contributed modestly (14.8%).
Conclusions: The findings highlight an alarming increase in unexplained fatalities and significant gender disparities in accidental death patterns. Future research should address systemic gaps in forensic processes and emerging health conditions like Long COVID. Enhanced public health policies and forensic capabilities are essential to mitigate preventable deaths.